Correlation for Predicting Water Breakthrough Time in Thin Oil Rim Reservoirs in the Niger Delta




Water coning, Breakthrough time, Integrated reservoir model, Thin oil rim reservoir, Niger Delta


In the Niger Delta, available correlations to predict water breakthrough time in thin oil rim reservoirs are based on generic reservoir models and/or experimental design approach. This approach had not considered the heterogeneity of the reservoir. Thus, the prediction of these available correlations for thin oil rim reservoirs in the Niger Delta is in doubt, considering the sensitive nature of developing thin oil rim reservoirs. Then, a correlation for water breakthrough time (tbt) was developed based on integrated reservoir model of thin oil rim reservoir in the Niger Delta. The obtained result indicated that the developed correlation predicted 1652.72 days compared to the actual Oilfield breakthrough time of 1653 days (about 4.53 years). Also, sensitivity study showed that the developed correlation and the integrated reservoir model predictions of oil production rate (qo), fractional well penetration (hp/h) and height above perforation-oil column (hap/h) on the water breakthrough time (tbt) were close and resulted in coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.9697, 0.8597 and 0.9553, respectively. Furthermore, the results depicted that water coning breakthrough time (tbt) depends directly on oil production rate (q) and well completion parameters: fractional well penetration (hp/h) and height above perforation (hap). Hence, to delay early water breakthrough in thin oil rim reservoirs, these completion parameters are consideration in vertical wells to achieve optimum oil recovery. Also, the developed correlation can be used as a quick and robust tool to predict water breakthrough time of thin oil rim reservoirs in the Niger Delta.

Author Biographies

Anietie Okon, University of Uyo

Chemical and Petroleum Engineering Department

Lecturer I


Dulu Appah, University of Port Harcourt

Department of Gas Engineering


Julius Akpabio, University of Uyo

Department of Chemical and Petroleum Engineering

Senior Lecturer


Abdulkarim, M. A. (2014). Development of Coning Correlations for Oil Rim Reservoirs using Experimental Design and Response Surface Methodology. Unpublished M.Sc. Thesis, African University of Science and Technology, Abuja, Nigeria.

Ayeni, K. B. (2008). Empirical Modeling and Simulation of Edgewater Cusping and Coning. PhD. Dissertation, Texas A&M University, USA.

Okon, A. N. and Appah, D. (2016). Neural Network Models for Predicting Wellhead Pressure – Flow Rate Relationship for Niger Delta. Journal of Scientific Research and Reports, 12(1): 1-14.

Okon, A. N., Appah, D. and Akpabio, J. U. (2018). A Critical Evaluation of Water Coning Correlations in Vertical Wells. American Journal of Science, Engineering and Technology, 3(1): 1-9.

Okon, A. N., Udoh, F. D. and Appah, D. (2015). Empirical Wellhead Pressure – Production Rate Correlations for Niger Delta Oil Wells. Paper presented at the Society of Petroleum Engineers Nigeria Annual International Conference and Exhibition, Lagos, Nigeria, 4-6 August, pp. 1-17.

Omeke, J. E., Livinus, A., Uche, I. N., Obah, B. and Ekeoma, E. (2010). A Proposed Cone Breakthrough Time Model for Horizontal Wells in Thin Oil Rim Reservoirs. Paper presented at the 34th Annual Society of Petroleum Engineers International Conference and Exhibition, Tinapa, Calabar, Nigeria, 31 July-7 August, pp. 1-11.

Onwukwe, S. I. (2011). A Novel Approach for Estimating Critical Rate and Horizontal Well Placement in Oil Rim Reservoirs. Unpublished PhD Thesis, Federal University of Technology, Owerri, Nigeria.

Onwukwe, S. I., Obah, B. and Chukwu, G. A. (2012). A Model Approach of Controlling Coning in Oil Rim Reservoirs. Paper presented at the Nigerian Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition of Society of Petroleum Engineers, Abuja, 6-8 August, pp. 1-10.

Pashaie, M., Sadeghi, M. and Jafarian, A. (2016). Artificial Neural Networks with Nelder-Mead Optimization Method for solving Nonlinear Integral Equations. Journal of Computer Science and Application, 8(1): 1-20.

Permadi, A. K. (2009). New Empirical Correlation for Predicting Water Breakthrough Time of a Vertical Well in a Bottom-Water Reservoir. Jurnal Teknologi Mineral. Accessed 10th May, 2017.

Recham, R., Osisanya, S. O. and Touami, M. (2000). Effect of Water Coning on the Performance of Vertical and Horizontal Wells – A Reservoir Simulation Study of Hassi R’mel Field, Algeria. Paper presented at Society of Petroleum Engineers/Petroleum Society of Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum International Conference on Horizontal Well Technology, Calgary, Alberta, Canada, 6-8 November, pp. 1-12.

Saad, S. M., Darwich, T. and Asaad, Y. (1995). Water Coning in Fractured Basement Reservoirs. Paper presented at Society of Petroleum Engineers Middle East Oil Show, Bahrain, 11-14 March, pp. 1-10.

Shaibu, R., Klewiah, I., Mahamah, M. A., Acquah, I. E., Cobbah, C. and Asiedu, S. W. (2017). An Intelligent Well Approach to Controlling Water Coning Problems in Horizontal Production Wells. International Journal of Engineering and Technical Research, 6(1): 317-323.

Smyth, G. K. (2015). Optimization and Nonlinear Equations. Wiley StataRef: Statistics Reference Online. pp. 1-9. doi: 10.1002/9781118445112.stat05030.pub2.

Wei, J. (2013). Multivariate Numerical Optimization. Lecture Note. Accessed: 1st June, 2018.




How to Cite

Okon, A., Appah, D., & Akpabio, J. (2018). Correlation for Predicting Water Breakthrough Time in Thin Oil Rim Reservoirs in the Niger Delta. Asian Journal of Engineering and Technology, 6(3).