Estimation of Monthly Gold Prices using Non-Gaussian Innovations
Keywords:
GARCH Modeling, Gold Prices, Time Series Analysis, Volatility ClusteringAbstract
The global gold market has recently attracted a lot of attention and the price of gold has been fluctuating over the years with high volatility. The frequent fluctuation of gold prices has affected many related sectors and stock market indices and the development of a model to estimate gold prices is of much economic importance to many stake holders. Thus this study was carried out to develop a GARCH model using monthly gold price series (in US$) for the period from December 1978 to December 2012. GARCH models under normal, non-normal innovations: t-distribution and generalized error distribution were selected for the data. After several levels of statistical screening the ARPARCHÂ with t distribution was found to be the best model for the gold price data. Â The model was trained using December 1978 to December 2010 and validated using January 2011 to December 2012. There was a very strong correlation (r = 0.98, p = 0.000) between observed data and the fitted data for both training and validation data sets.
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