Modeling and Mapping the Risk of Loss Macro Economics for Natural Disasters
Keywords:Disaster Losses Macroeconomics, Spatial Autoregressive, Geographic Information System
This study aims to determine the magnitude of the economic impact caused by natural disasters as well as to map the magnitude of macro- economic risk of loss from each region will be used as a study with Java as the target of studies. The data used in this study is a secondary data in 2011 from the National Disaster Management Agency and Central Bureau of Statistics in Indonesia, while the data analysis methods used are Regression of Dummy Variables and Regression Analysis of Spatial. Outcomes resulting from this study are thematic map that displays economic risk factors and the model estimates the economic losses in the event of a disasters. The results of this study showed a negative relationship between GDP at current prices by the number of occurrences spatially disaster in East Java and Yogyakarta Province and district data for modeling using Spatial Autoregressive Model showed a Â significant relationship between the value of GDP, population and number of disaster events. Morans'Iâ€™s values was negatives , meaning that 1 unit increase in the number of disasters and the number of people at risk will decrease the value of GDP (macro-economic) of 0.54531 billion Indonesian rupiah or U.S.$46,076.
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