An Analysis of Z-Scores & Performance: Manufacturing Companies in Hong Kong

Authors

  • Foo See Liang
  • Shaakalya Pathak

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24203/ajbm.v7i2.5709

Keywords:

financial health, corporate performance, manufacturing, altman z-score, roe, hong kong, hkse, sehk

Abstract

Hong Kong is a key leading economy in the Asia Pacific region. This study examines the relationship between the financial health, as measured by the Altman Z-Score, and corporate performance, as measured by the Return on Equity (ROE), of listed manufacturing companies in this market. A linear regression has been conducted between these variables to determine the magnitude and direction of their relationships. The trends of Z-Scores over a five-year period have also been analysed. The analysis covers the period from 2013 to 2017 (inclusive) and yields a statistically positive correlation between ROE and the Z-Score for the market. Hong Kong registered relatively healthy mean and median Z-Scores. These findings further support the strong economic position of this market as an Asian giant.

 

References

Agarwal, V., & Taffler, R. J. (2007). Twenty-five years of the Taffler z-score model: Does it really have predictive ability? Accounting and Business Research, 37(4), 285-300. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00014788.2007.9663313

Altman, E. I. (1968) a. Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy. The Journal of Finance, 23(4), 589-609. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1968.tb00843

Altman, E. I. (1982) b. Accounting implications of failure prediction models. The Journal of Accountancy, 6(1), 4-19.

Altman, E. I. (2007) c. Revisiting credit scoring models in a Basel 2 environment. Lecture at National Taiwan University. [Online] Available: www.fin.ntu.edu.tw/~hwangdar/94emba19.ppt

Altman, E. I., & McGough, T. P. (1974). Evaluation of a company as a going-concern. The Journal of Accountancy, 143, 50-57.

Aziz, M. A., & Dar, H. A. (2006). Predicting corporate bankruptcy: where we stand? Corporate Governance, 6(1), 18-33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/14720700610649436

Beaver, W. H. (1966). Financial ratios as predictors of failure. Journal of Accounting Research, 4, 71 – 111. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2490171

Beynon, M. J., & Peel, M. J. (2001). Variable precision rough set theory and data discretization: An application to corporate failure prediction. Omega, 29, 561-576. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0305-0483(01)00045-7

Blum, M. P. (1974). Failing company discriminant analysis. Journal of Accounting Research, 12(1), 1-25. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2490525

BSE India. (2016). Introduction: BSE India. BSE India. [Online] Available: http://www.bseindia.com/static/about/introduction.aspx?expandable=0

Calandro Jr, J. (2007). Considering the utility of Altman's Z-score as a strategic assessment and performance management tool. Strategy & Leadership, 35(5), 37-43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/10878570710819206

Cendrowski, S. (2015). China's Global 500 companies are bigger than ever—and mostly state-owned. Fortune. [Online] Available: http://fortune.com/2015/07/22/china-global-500-government-owned/

Chen, M. C., Cheng, S. J., & Hwang, Y. (2005). An empirical investigation of the relationship between intellectual capital and firms’ market value and financial performance. Journal of Intellectual Capital, 6(2), 159-176. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/14691930510592771

Chen, S., & Dodd, J. L. (1997). Economic Value Added (EVAâ„¢): An Empirical Examination Of A New Corporate Performance Measure. Journal of Managerial Issues, 9(3), 318-333.

Chung, K. C., Tan, S. S., & Holdsworth, D. K. (2008). Insolvency prediction model using multivariate discriminant analysis and artificial neural network for the finance industry in New Zealand. International Journal of Business and Management, 3(1), 19-29.

Damodaran, A. (2007). Return on Capital (ROC), Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and Return on Equity (ROE): Measurement and Implications. Stern School of Business, 2-66. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1105499

Deakin, E. B. (1977). Business failure prediction: An empirical analysis. In E. Altman, & A. Sametz (Eds.), Financial crises: Institutions and markets in a fragile environment. New York: John Wiley.

Foo, S. L. (2015). Financial Health & Corporate Performance of Listed Manufacturing Companies in Hong Kong & Singapore: A Comparative Study of the Two Asian Tigers. Asian Journal of Business and Management, 3(2), 148-154. [Online] Available: http://www.ajouronline.com/index.php?journal=AJBM&page=article&op=view&path%5B%5D=2451

Frydman, H. E., Altman, E. I., & Kao, D. G. (1985). Introducing Recursive Partitioning for Financial Classification: The Case of Financial Distress. Journal of Finance, 40(1), 269-291. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1985.tb04949.x

Gunathilaka, C. (2014). Financial Distress Prediction: A Comparative Study of Solvency Test and Z-Score Models with Reference to Sri Lanka. The IUP Journal of Financial Risk Management, 11(3), 39-51.

Hagel, J., & D, J. (2010). The Best Way to Measure Company Performance. Harvard Business Review. [Online] Available: https://hbr.org/2010/03/the-best-way-to-measure-compan.html

IndexMundi. (2013). China vs. India: Country Comparisons. IndexMundi. [Online] Available: http://www.indexmundi.com/factbook/compare/china.india/economy

International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2017). October 2017: Making the Most of the Upswing. Regional Economic Outlook. [Online] Available: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/APAC/Issues/2017/10/09/areo1013

Koh, H. C., & Killough, L. N. (1990). The use of multiple discriminant analysis in the assessment of the going concern status of an audit client. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 17(2), 179–192. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5957.1990.tb00556.x

Levitan, A. S., & Knoblett, J. A. (1985). Indicators of exceptions to the going concern assumption. Auditing: A Journal of Practice and Theory (Fall), 26–39.

Meric, I., Lentz, C., Li, S., & Meric, G. (2014). A Comparison of the Financial Characteristics of Hong Kong and Singapore Manufacturing Firms. Global Journal of Business Research, 8(3), 31-37.

Monaghan, A. (2014). China surpasses US as world's largest trading nation. The Guardian. [Online] Available:http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jan/10/china-surpasses-us-world-largest-trading-nation

Neophytou, E., Charitou, A., & Charalambous, C. (2001). Predicting corporate failure: Empirical evidence for the UK. Discussion Paper No. 01-173, March, School of Management, University of Southampton, Southampton.

Ohlson, J. (1980). Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy. Journal of Accounting Research, 18(1), 109-131. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2490395

Perez, M. (2006). Artificial neural networks and bankruptcy forecasting: a state of the art. Neural Computer & Application, 15, 154–163. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00521-005-0022-x

Pradhan, R. (2014). Z Score Estimation for Indian Banking Sector. International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance, 5(6), 516-520. http://dx.doi.org/10.7763/IJTEF.2014.V5.425

Saji, T.G. (2018). Financial Distress and Stock Market Failures: Lessons from Indian Realty Sector. Vision 22(1), 50-60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177%2F0972262917750244

Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE). (2015). Brief Intro: Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE). Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE). [Online] Available: http://english.sse.com.cn/aboutsse/sseoverview/brief/

Sherbo, A., & Smith, A. (2013). The Altman Z-Score Bankruptcy Model at Age 45: Standing the Test of Time? ABI Journal, 32(11), 40-42.

Stowe, J. D., Robinson, T. R., Pinto, J. E., & McLeavey, D. W. (2002). Analysis of Equity Investments: Valuation (pp. 55-58). Association for Investment Management and Research (AIMR).

Thai, S., Goh, H., Teh, B., Wong, J., & Ong, T. (2014). A Revisited of Altman Z- Score Model for Companies Listed in Bursa Malaysia. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 5(12), 197-207.

Tandiontong, M., Mathius, M. (2017). The Influence of Financial Distress Using Altman Z-Score, the Beta of Stocks and Inflation to the Stock Return. Journal of Finance and Banking Review, Vol. 2(2), p. 21-27, Apr-Jun 2017. [Online] Available: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3000747

Trippi, R. R., & Turban, E. (1996). Neural networks in finance and investing: using artificial intelligence to improve real-world performance. (pp. 367-394). London: IRWIN Professional Publishing, 367-394.

Wang, Y., & Campbell, M. (2010). Business Failure Prediction For Publicly Listed Companies In China. Journal of Business and Management, 16(1), 75-88.

Wang, Y., & Campbell, M. (2010). Do Bankruptcy Models Really Have Predictive Ability? Evidence Using China Publicly Listed Companies. International Management Review, 6(2), 77.

World Bank. (2018). Annual GDP Growth (%). [Online] Available: https://data.worldbank.org/country/india?view=chart

World Federation of Exchanges. (2015). Monthly Reports. World Federation of Exchanges. [Online] Available: http://www.world-exchanges.org/home/index.php/statistics/monthly-reports

Zhao, Y. (2013). The Relationship between Share Price Gains, Corporate Performance and Risk. OALib Journal, 110-112. [Online] Available: http://www.oalib.com/paper/2993772

Downloads

Published

2019-04-19

How to Cite

See Liang, F., & Pathak, S. (2019). An Analysis of Z-Scores & Performance: Manufacturing Companies in Hong Kong. Asian Journal of Business and Management, 7(2). https://doi.org/10.24203/ajbm.v7i2.5709

Issue

Section

Articles