Dynamics of Economic Growth and Environmental Degradation in Nigeria using Vector Auto-Regressive Model

Timothy O. Olatayo, Mayor Andrew, Moses C. Ekperiware

Abstract


The study examined the interrelationship among economic growth, environmental pollution and human health for Sustainable Development (SD) in Nigeria. This was to contribute to the dynamic debate of how human and economic activities relate and interrelate with environmental pollution in measuring sustainable development in Nigeria. This study further sought to verify the Environmental Kuznet Curve Hypothesis in Nigeria.

The study employed the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to investigate linear and interrelationship mainly among life expectancy at birth, economic growth and environmental pollution in Nigeria from 1970-2015. Since the variables have unit root and revealed that there is at least a cointegrating equation in the model, the VECM become a more appropriate model for the study.

The VECM Impulse Response Function (IRF) result indicated that economic growth increased environmental degradation in the long run and environmental degradation on the other way round reduced economic growth in most of the period of the study. The VECM system conditional forecast of 10%, 20% and 26% from 2000 to 2015 periods showed that a 10%, 20%, and 26% reduction forecasts of environmental pollution led to a consistent increased economic growth and life expectancy at birth of the country in the study. This indicated that a reduction in environmental pollution will improve the health of Nigerians and also enhance a sustainable development in the country.

The study concluded that environmental degradation reduces economic growth while economic activities in the country increases environmental degradation in the country. From the conditional forecast, the study further concluded that efforts in reducing environmental pollution through policies and better environmental friendly economic activities will improves economic growth for sustainable development in the country.


Keywords


Environmental pollution, population, sustainable development, vector error correction model, environmental kuznet curve hypothesis

Full Text:

PDF

References


. Kuznets, S. Economic growth and income inequality. American Economic Review, 45(1), 1-28.,1995.

. Mally, K. V. Regional differences in Slovenia from the viewpoint of achieving Europe's Sustainable Development, Acta geographica Slovenica, 58-2, 2018, 31–46,2018.

. Oladeji S. I. and Adebayo A. A. The Scope of Human Resources Sustainable Development under the Adjustment Programme in Nigeria, NES (ed.) Beyond Adjustment: the Management of the Nigerian Economy, Selected Papers of the Annual Conference, the Nigerian Economic Society (NES), Ibadan.1996.

. Ekperiware M. C. Dynamics of Human Capital Formation and Long-run Economic Growth in Nigeria (1970-2014), PhD thesis from the department of economics, Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), Ile-Ife, Nigeria.2018

. Stevens C. Measuring Sustainable Development, STATISTICS BRIEF, OECD, No. 10 September, 2005, https://www.oecd.org/std/35407580.pdf

. Adejumo A. V. and Adejumo P. O. Prospects for Achieving Sustainable Development Through the Millennium Development Goals in Nigeria. European Journal of Sustainable Development, 3, 1, 33-46,2014.

. Samet, J.M. Marbury, M.C. and Spengler, J.D. “Health effects and sources of indoor air pollution. part i,” American Review of Respiratory Disease, vol. 136, no. 6, pp. 1486–1508.2014.

. Doherty, R. M. (2015), “Atmospheric chemistry: Ozone pollution from near and far,” Nature Geoscience, vol. 8, no. 9, pp. 664–665.2015.

. Shafik, N., &Bandyopadhyay, S. Economic growth and environmental quality: Time series and crosscountry evidence, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, WPS 904.1992

. Gyarmati-Szab´o, J., Bogachev, L. V. and Chen, H. Nonstationary POT modelling of air pollution concentrations: Statistical analysis of the traffic and meteorological impact arXiv:1610.06195v2 [stat.AP] 29 May 2017, https://arxiv.org/pdf/1610.06195.pdf

. Gül, H., Gaga, E. O., Döğeroğlu, T., Özden, Ö., Ayvaz, Ö., Özel, S. and Güngör, G. Respiratory health symptoms among students exposed to different levels of air pollution in a Turkish city. Int J Environ Res Public Health. Apr;8(4):1110-25.2011.

. Yazdi, S. K., Tahmasebi Z. and Mastorakis, N. . Public Healthcare Expenditure and Environmental quality in Iran, Recent Advances in Applied Economics, ISBN: 978-960-474-394-0. 2012.

. Greiner, R., Herr, A., Brodie, J. and Haynes, D. A multi‐criteria approach to Great Barrier Reef catchment (Queensland, Australia) diffuse‐source pollution problem,. Marine Pollution Bulletin 51, pp. 128‐137,2005.

. Isola, W.A. and Mesagan, E.P. Impact of Oil Production on HumanCondition in Nigeria, MPRA Paper No. 67784, posted 13,2015.

. Gutierrez, M. J. Dynamic inefficiency in an overlapping generation economy with pollution and health costs. J. Public Econ. Theory 10 (4), 563–594.2008.

. Panayotou, T. Demystifying the environmental Kuznets curve: turning a black box into a policy tool. Environment and development economics, 2(04), 465-484.1997.

. He, j. and Richard, P,. Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO2 in Canada, Groupe de Recherche en Économie et Développement International, Cahier de recherche / Working Paper 09-13,2009.

. Stern, D. I. and Common, M. S. Is there an environmental Kuznets curve for sulfur? Journal of Environmental Economics and Environmental Management, 41: 162-178., 2011.

. Hassan, S. A., Zaman, K. and Gul, S. The Relationship between Growth-Inequality-Poverty Triangle and Environmental Degradation: Unveiling the Reality,. Arab Economics and Business Journal 10 57–71,2011.

. Akbostancı, E., Türüt-Aşık, S., and Tunç, G. İ. The relationship between income and environment in Turkey: Is there an environmental Kuznets curve?. Energy Policy, 37(3), 861-867,2009.

. Mizushima, A.. Population Aging and Economic Growth: The Effect of Health Expenditure, European University Institute, Series/Number: EUI ECO; 35, 2008.

. Christiano L. J. (2012). Christopher A. Sims and Vector Autoregressions,. Scand. J. of Economics 114(4), 2012. 1082–1104, 2012, DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9442.2012.01737.x




DOI: https://doi.org/10.24203/ajas.v7i2.5606

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.