Study of the Incentive Caused by the Scrappage Program in Accelerating Old-Car Replacement in Order to Reduce Gas Emissions from Gasoline Passenger Cars in Indonesia

Abdi Pratama, Akihiro Tokai, Kojima Naoya

Abstract


This paper describes a scenario designed to reduce the emission level of non-euro cars that makes up more than 80% of the current car stock in 2013, even though the number of non-euro cars is only a maximum of 24% of the total population. We have applied an incentive for people to replace their non-euro car with a newer LCGC car through a scrappage program. Willingness to change was determined through a questionnaire to determine the respondent’s willingness to change to an LCGC car. From the survey, the financial aspect still dominated the motivation behind the replacement. This was shown from the choice of the highest incentive fee of $2,000 USD per unit. By applying 78% and 82% to describe the probability of changing to the LCGC car and the incentive option of $2,000 USD respectively, it was proven that the incentive program can reduce the population of non-euro cars. From the results, it can be seen that emission gases CO, NO, and HC decreased significantly; CO by 59.3%, NO by 68.1%, and HC by 35.4% compared to without the scrappage incentive program by 2030. Because each unit is replaced with a LCGC car, the population balance is zero. The increase of the emission level from the additional number of LCGC cars is not significant compared to the emissions from non-euro cars. We conclude that the incentive program for non-euro cars is one of the most effective ways to reduce the gas emission level.

Keywords


emission, passenger car, policy control, scrappage, Indonesia

Full Text:

PDF

References


Alberini A, Harrington W, McConnell V. (1996). Estimating an emissions supply function from accelerated vehicle retirement programs. Rev Econ Stat, 78, 251–265. doi: 10.2307/2109927

BenDor T, Ford A. (2006). Simulating a combination of feebates and scrappage incentives to reduce automobile emissions. Energy, 31, 1197–1214. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2005.05.024

Böckers V, Heimeshoff U, Müller A. (2012). Pull-Forward Effects in the German Car Scrappage Scheme : A Time Series Approach.

Borken-Kleefeld J, Chen Y. (2015). New emission deterioration rates for gasoline cars - Results from long-term measurements. Atmos Environ, 101, 58–64.

Boulter PG. (2009). Emission factors 2009: Report 6 – deterioration factors and other modelling assumptions for road vehicles.

BPS. (2013). Central Bureau of Statistics Report 2013. Central Bureau of Statistics Report : Number of Domestically Assembled Motor Vehicles (units), 2008-2013, https://www.bps.go.id/linkTabelStatis/view/id/1065.

Gaikindo. (2015). Automotive Car Association Report: Domestic Auto Market & Exim by Category 2015.

Hennessy H, Richard SJT. (2011). The impact of government policy on private car ownership in ireland. Econ Soc Rev (Irel), 42,135–157.

MOI. (2013). Decree of The Ministry Of Industry (MOI) No.33/M-IND/PER/7/2013.

Nicholas Cet al (1999) Accelerating Vehicle Replacement and Environment Protection. J Transp Econ Policy 33:pp.329-42.

Nugroho SB, Fujiwara A. (2005). Evaluating the Effects of a New Vehicle Emission Standard on Urban Air Quality in Jakarta City. J Int Dev Coop, 11, 17–37.

Yamamoto T, Madre JL, Kitamura R. (2004). An analysis of the effects of French vehicle inspection program and grant for scrappage on household vehicle transaction. Transp Res Part B Methodol, 38, 905–926. doi: 10.1016/j.trb.2004.02.001




DOI: https://doi.org/10.24203/ajas.v6i6.5580

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.