Forecasting Stability of the Stock and Credit Markets of Ukraine
Keywords:
stability, financial market, index, trajectory, dynamics, attractorAbstract
In the current work we analyze the stability of the development of Ukrainian financial market segments. The stability theory and non-linear analysis are the mathematical tools of the investigation. In the article we used three types of stability. There are Lagrange stabiilty, Poisson stability and Lyapunov stability. The stability indexes show unstable trajectories for the trend of stock and credit segments by Lagrange. Poisson stability recognizes stable cyclic components in the dynamic of credit market. Ukrainian financial market was analyzed as a single system by the Lyapuniov stability that shows sustainable trajectories of both segments. We constructed attractors of each segments and forecasting stability in each attractor by investigation of the localization points.
References
Allen L. White. (2011) Economy Reset: Principles of a New Economy.
Black, W. (2010), “Neo-classical economic theories, methodology and praxis optimize criminogenic environments and produce recurrent, intensifying crisesâ€, Creighton Law Review, May 13, 2010
Bernanke, B. (2002a), “Asset-price ‘bubbles’ and monetary policyâ€, speech delivered at the New York Chapter of the National Association for Business Economics, New York, October 15, 2002
Bezemer, D. (2009), “No one saw this coming: understanding financial crisis through accounting modelsâ€, Munich Personal RePEc Archive
Deeg, R. (1999), Finance Capitalism Unveiled: Banks and the German Political Economy, Michigan, University of Michigan
Dickey, D.A. and W.A. Fuller (1979) “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root,†Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427–431
Fullbrook, E. (2010), “How to bring economics into the 3rd millennium by 2020â€, Real- World Economic Review, Issue 54, pp. 89-102
Greenspan, A. (2008), Testimony of Dr Alan Greenspan to the Committee of Government Oversight and Reform, October 23, 2008
Greenspan, A. (2002), “Economic volatilityâ€, speech delivered at a symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, August 30, 2002
Greiner L (1972). “Evolution and Revolution as Organizations Growâ€, Harvard Business Review
Kresse J (2011). It’s Time For A New Economic Paradigm.
MacKinnon, J.G. (1991) “Critical Values for Cointegration Tests,†Chapter 13 in Long-run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration, edited by R.F.Engle and C.W.J. Granger, Oxford University Press.
Rayevnyeva O., Stryzhychenko K. (2012) Investigation of the Wave Nature of the Ukrainian Stock Market", IJISA, vol.4, no.1, pp.1-10.
Schumpeter, J. (1934), The theory of economic development, 14th Printing, Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick
Stiglitz, J. (2010), “Needed: a new economic paradigmâ€, Financial Times, August 19, 2010
Schulman, L. S. (1978). "Note on the quantum recurrence theorem". Phys. Rev. A 18 (5): 2379–2380
Stryzhychenko K (2009). Analysis of influence of Russian Stock Market into Ukrainian stock market/ Financial Market Principles of modeling, forecasting and Decision-Making. Lodz Unsversity Press, Lodz.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
- Papers must be submitted on the understanding that they have not been published elsewhere (except in the form of an abstract or as part of a published lecture, review, or thesis) and are not currently under consideration by another journal published by any other publisher.
- It is also the authors responsibility to ensure that the articles emanating from a particular source are submitted with the necessary approval.
- The authors warrant that the paper is original and that he/she is the author of the paper, except for material that is clearly identified as to its original source, with permission notices from the copyright owners where required.
- The authors ensure that all the references carefully and they are accurate in the text as well as in the list of references (and vice versa).
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).
- The journal/publisher is not responsible for subsequent uses of the work. It is the author's responsibility to bring an infringement action if so desired by the author.