An Evaluation of a Reservoir Elevation with Markov Model in Continuous Time

Authors

  • U.Y. Abubakar Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Federal University of Technology, Minna
  • A. Mohammed Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Federal University of Technology Minna
  • A. Lawal Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Federal University of Technology Minna

Keywords:

Markov Model, Continuous time, Non-stationary, Transition, Probability, Reservoir, Elevation

Abstract

A three-state Markov model in continuous time was  used to study  the reservoir elevation of a dam. A non-stationary transition probability was assumed for the process. The result indicates a maximum probability of 0.3 and 0.5 in about four years to have middle reservoir and upper reservoir elevation given that it is low reservoir elevation at present. The model could be used to make a  forecast of the reservoir elevation of the dam in the future given the present reservoir elevation. The information could be used to plan  for the maximum use of the dam resources such as the HEP generation, fresh water fishing and the cultivation of the dam basin for crop production.

 

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Published

2013-06-13

How to Cite

Abubakar, U., Mohammed, A., & Lawal, A. (2013). An Evaluation of a Reservoir Elevation with Markov Model in Continuous Time. Asian Journal of Fuzzy and Applied Mathematics, 1(1). Retrieved from https://ajouronline.com/index.php/AJFAM/article/view/187

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